The Mail and the Midterms: Ballots at Risk
Undermining Mail-in Voting Systems
The SAVE America Act, still under debate in the U.S. Senate, stands as the latest flashpoint in an escalating national fight over voter suppression. Pressured by Donald Trump to impose strict new voter ID requirements, House Republicans, including Representative Michael Baumgartner, bent the knee and voted to advance the legislation that would strip millions of citizens of their access to the polls. This, despite only three cases of illegal voting identified in Washington State federal elections since 2000 out of nearly 37 million ballots cast. The fight over Republican attempts at voter suppression now shifts to the growing number of attempts to sabotage voter's rights that determine whether lawful ballots are counted at all.
Below Grant Fredericks dissects the efforts to undermine mail-in voting systems. It’s an informative read.
Keep to the high ground,
Jerry
The Mail and the Midterms: Ballots at Risk
A Pivotal Case Being Argued This Morning
By Grant Fredericks
This morning, the United States Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee, a case that asks whether a ballot mailed on time can still be rejected.1
The dispute stems from a Republican challenge to a Mississippi law that allows ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive up to five days later and still be counted.2 The Republican National Committee, joined by the Trump administration, is asking the Court to require that all ballots be in election officials’ possession by the close of polls.3
In a brief filed with the Court, U.S. Solicitor General John Sauer wrote: “Elections have consequences. They also have a definition. And from the dawn of America, Election Day has meant the day the ballot box closes and when election officials must be in receipt of all ballots.”4
A decision is expected by summer, before the fall campaign season begins, and could invalidate postmark-based ballot acceptance rules in at least 14 states.5
A federal rule change finalized on Christmas Eve has already put rural Eastern Washington ballots at risk. Washington holds a primary in August and a general election in November. The Court’s decision this summer will determine whether the legal framework protecting both survives.
Across the federal elections system, separate and numerous changes are underway that increase the likelihood that lawful ballots will not be counted.
The System That Carries Your Vote Has Already Changed
On December 24, 2025, Christmas Eve, the United States Postal Service changed how the official postmark is assigned.6The rule took effect immediately, with no phase-in period and no public announcement.7 It was not reported until seven days later, when CNN broke the story on New Year’s Eve, the last day of the year.8 The timing ensured that almost no one was watching. Under the old rule, a postmark was dated the day a ballot was deposited in a mailbox or handed to a carrier.9 Under the new rule, the postmark is dated the day the ballot arrives at a regional processing facility.10
In Eastern Washington, that processing happens at a single facility in Spokane.11 For voters in rural counties, transporting a ballot there can take one to two days.12
Washington conducts elections entirely by mail.13 In Eastern Washington’s 5th Congressional District, approximately 180,661 ballots are expected to move through the postal system in the November 2026 general election alone, all of them passing through that single Spokane facility.14 In Ferry County alone, that is 2,216 ballots.15 In Lincoln County, 4,777.16In Stevens County, 17,197.17 In those three counties, between 63 and 73 percent of voters return their ballots by mail, with few drop box alternatives.18
What “On Time” used to Mean
Washington law still requires an Election Day postmark, but the Postal Service now assigns that postmark later in the process.19
Before December 24, 2025, a voter who placed a ballot in the mail on Election Day could expect the postmarked validation.
Under the new rule, they can not. The postmark is now applied when the ballot is processed at a regional facility. The timing of that stamp is controlled by the postal system, not the voter.
In Eastern Washington, that stamp is applied in Spokane. A ballot placed in the mail in a rural county on Election Day evening may not reach Spokane until the next day or later. When it is processed, it receives a postmark dated after Election Day.
Washington law still requires an Election Day postmark. The voter can act on time and still receive a postmark that does not meet the requirement. The ballot is rejected.
A Warning
On March 5, 2026, the president of the National Association of Postal Supervisors testified before the Congressional Postal Caucus that the December rule change already creates risk of delayed absentee ballot acceptance by election authorities.20 The statement did not come from a political campaign. It came from the union representing the supervisors who run the facilities where the postmarks are now applied.
On March 12, 2026, Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, wrote to Postmaster General David Steiner demanding answers about the same change, warning that what was happening to Oregon’s mail-ballot system was happening nationwide.21
Wyden was direct: “Donald Trump and Republicans will stop at nothing to suppress the rights of Americans to make their voices heard this November. Between Trump’s feverish attempts to coerce Congress into passing the SAVE Act, and now his kneecapping of the U.S. Postal Service, the American people have no choice but to see these efforts as a politically-motivated attempt to interfere in Oregon’s safe and secure vote-by-mail system during a consequential election year.”22
Oregon is not Eastern Washington. But the rule is the same, the system is the same, and the calendar is the same.
Slower Mail, One Facility, No Backup
In April 2025, the Postal Service reduced how often mail moves.23
The program is called Regional Transportation Optimization.24 It does not close post offices or eliminate routes. It reduces the number of daily trips between local post offices and the regional facilities where mail is sorted.25 Mail that once left on the next available run now waits for the next scheduled one.
Before the program launched, two federal watchdogs reached the same conclusion. The Postal Service’s own Inspector General projected the changes could slow delivery times.26 The Postal Regulatory Commission found the program was unlikely to produce the savings it promised.27 The program went forward.
On February 2, 2026, Representatives Robert Garcia and Joseph Morelle, joined by sixty-eight other House Democrats, wrote to Postmaster General David Steiner asking that the program be paused during the 2026 election season.28 The Postal Service did not pause the program and has not disclosed which communities are subject to the reduced schedule.29Voters and election officials in Eastern Washington do not know whether their mail is affected.
In February 2026, the Supreme Court ruled that postal workers cannot be civilly sued for intentionally destroying mail.30In dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor warned that the Court had erased the distinction between accidental loss and deliberate interference, treating both the same under the law. In practical terms, a delayed ballot and an intentionally delayed ballot now fall into the same legal category. At the moment when every other safeguard around mail voting is being dismantled, the legal deterrent against deliberate interference has been removed as well.
The Vote That Tightened the Front Door
On February 11, 2026, the House of Representatives passed the SAVE America Act.31 Representative Michael Baumgartner voted in favor. Every House Republican did.32
The bill requires documentary proof of United States citizenship to register to vote, including registration by mail, and a government-issued photo ID to cast a ballot.33 Applications without the required documentation must be rejected.34Approximately 21 million eligible American citizens do not have ready access to the citizenship documents this bill requires for registration alone.35
The SAVE America Act applies before a ballot is cast. It employs stricter rules regulating who is permitted to register to vote in the first place.
Baumgartner was direct about his vote. “Requiring ID to vote is just common sense,” he wrote on February 11. “I was proud to vote YES on the SAVE America Act.”36 The statement does not address the bill’s requirement that voters provide documentary proof of citizenship to register, including by mail, a requirement that election officials and voting rights groups say millions of eligible voters cannot readily meet.
Democrats have the votes to block the bill and have said they will.37 The bill is now on the Senate floor, where Republicans are forcing votes on amendments, but it lacks the support needed to overcome a filibuster and has no clear path to becoming law.
The Clock Is Running
On March 17, 2026, Postmaster General David Steiner testified under oath before the House Oversight Subcommittee on Government Operations: “Less than a year from now, the Postal Service will be unable to deliver the mail if we maintain the status quo.”38 Without congressional action, the Postal Service runs out of money in October 2026, one month before Election Day.39 Over the weekend, the Senate continued debate on the SAVE America Act, forcing amendment votes despite lacking the support needed to pass the bill.
The impact on the Postal Service’s ability to conduct normal operations, combined with new voter identification requirements, excludes lawful ballots. President Trump took the assault on mail-in ballots a step further last month, demanding that federal law allow no mail-in voting except for military service, illness, disability, or travel.40 Taken together, these mechanisms represent an aggressive voter suppression strategy.
For Eastern Washington voters, the effects are already in place.
November is approaching.
Endnotes
1. Watson v. Republican National Committee, No. 24-1260, U.S. Supreme Court. Oral arguments March 23, 2026. SCOTUSblog: https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/watson-v-republican-national-committee/. Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/Watson_v._Republican_National_Committee
2. Public Rights Project amicus brief summary, Jan. 2026: https://www.publicrightsproject.org/what-we-do/legal-advocacy/watson-v-republican-national-committee-jan-2026/. CNN, Dec. 31, 2025: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/31/politics/usps-postmark-rule-change-mail-in-ballots
3. Democracy Docket, March 2026: https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-doj-pushes-single-day-elections-ahead-of-supreme-court-case/. SCOTUSblog: https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/watson-v-republican-national-committee/
4. U.S. Solicitor General John Sauer, Brief for the United States as Amicus Curiae, Watson v. Republican National Committee, No. 24-1260. Quote confirmed by Courthouse News Service, March 23, 2026: https://www.courthousenews.com/stop-the-count-supreme-court-puts-mail-in-ballot-deadline-under-the-microscope/. Full brief accessible via SCOTUS docket: https://www.supremecourt.gov
5. CNN, Dec. 31, 2025 (citing NCSL 14-state figure): https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/31/politics/usps-postmark-rule-change-mail-in-ballots. ACLU case page (June 2026 expected ruling): https://www.aclu.org/cases/watson-v-rnc
6. CNN Politics, Dec. 31, 2025: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/31/politics/usps-postmark-rule-change-mail-in-ballots. Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/when-a-postmark-no-longer-tracks-mailing/. USPS Domestic Mail Manual, DMM 608.11 (FR Doc. 2025-20740): https://pe.usps.com/text/dmm300/dmm300_landing.htm
7. CNN Politics, Dec. 31, 2025: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/31/politics/usps-postmark-rule-change-mail-in-ballots. Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/when-a-postmark-no-longer-tracks-mailing/
8. CNN Politics, “Ballots, tax returns and other important mail may not get postmarked the day you turn it in, Postal Service warns,” Dec. 31, 2025: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/31/politics/usps-postmark-rule-change-mail-in-ballots
9. USPS Domestic Mail Manual, DMM 608.11: https://pe.usps.com/text/dmm300/dmm300_landing.htm. Greater Public explainer, Dec. 29, 2025: https://greaterpublic.org/blog/new-usps-rule-means-the-old-mailbox-rule-is-no-longer-fully-reliable/
10. CNN Politics, Dec. 31, 2025: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/31/politics/usps-postmark-rule-change-mail-in-ballots. Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/when-a-postmark-no-longer-tracks-mailing/. Pitney Bowes documentation: https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/postal-information/usps-rate-change-overview.html
11. WA-5 USPS Facilities Report (research compilation), citing USPS Newsroom, “Spokane Media Invited to Tour USPS Mail Processing Center,” Nov. 22, 2022: https://about.usps.com/newsroom/local-releases/wa/2022/1122ma-spokane-media-to-tour-mail-processing-center.htm
12. CNN Politics, Dec. 31, 2025: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/31/politics/usps-postmark-rule-change-mail-in-ballots. Garcia-Morelle letter, Feb. 2, 2026: https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026.02.02.letter-to-usps.pdf
13. Washington Office of the Secretary of State, 2024 Annual Report of Washington State Elections, Feb. 2025: https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/2024%20Annual%20Elections%20Report.pdf
14. WA-5 USPS Facilities Report (research compilation), 2026 Midterm Projection. WA SOS, 2024 Annual Report: https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/2024%20Annual%20Elections%20Report.pdf; 2022 Annual Report: https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/2022%20annual%20report.pdf
15. WA-5 USPS Facilities Report (research compilation), 2026 Midterm Projection. WA SOS 2024 Annual Report: https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/2024%20Annual%20Elections%20Report.pdf
16. WA-5 USPS Facilities Report (research compilation), 2026 Midterm Projection. WA SOS 2024 Annual Report: https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/2024%20Annual%20Elections%20Report.pdf
17. WA-5 USPS Facilities Report (research compilation), 2026 Midterm Projection. WA SOS 2024 Annual Report: https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/2024%20Annual%20Elections%20Report.pdf
18. WA-5 USPS Facilities Report (research compilation), 2024 ballot table. WA SOS, 2024 Annual Report: https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/2024%20Annual%20Elections%20Report.pdf
19. Washington State Legislature, RCW 29A.40.110, “Processing incoming ballots”: https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=29A.40.110
20. Statement of Ivan D. Butts, President, National Association of Postal Supervisors, before the Congressional Postal Service Caucus Roundtable, March 5, 2026. Postal Employee Network, March 7, 2026: https://postalemployeenetwork.com/news/2026/03/07/statement-of-ivan-d-butts-president-nps-before-the-congressional-postal-service-caucus-roundtable-march-5-2026/. The Firing Line/Substack: https://thefiringline.substack.com/p/the-post-office-is-running-out-of
21. U.S. Senate Finance Committee, “Wyden Presses Trump Administration Over USPS Changes Jeopardizing Americans’ Tax Returns, Mail-In Ballots,” March 12, 2026: https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-news/wyden-presses-trump-administration-over-usps-changes-jeopardizing-americans-tax-returns-mail-in-ballots
22. Sen. Ron Wyden, letter to Postmaster General David Steiner, March 12, 2026, as published by U.S. Senate Finance Committee: https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-news/wyden-presses-trump-administration-over-usps-changes-jeopardizing-americans-tax-returns-mail-in-ballots
23. Garcia-Morelle letter to Postmaster General Steiner, Feb. 2, 2026: https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026.02.02.letter-to-usps.pdf. Democracy Docket, Feb. 2, 2026: https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/democrats-warn-usps-changes-could-threaten-mail-voting-in-midterms/
24. Garcia-Morelle letter to Postmaster General Steiner, Feb. 2, 2026: https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026.02.02.letter-to-usps.pdf
25. Garcia-Morelle letter to Postmaster General Steiner, Feb. 2, 2026: https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026.02.02.letter-to-usps.pdf. Democracy Docket: https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/democrats-warn-usps-changes-could-threaten-mail-voting-in-midterms/
26. USPS OIG finding on RTO, as cited in Garcia-Morelle letter to Postmaster General Steiner, Feb. 2, 2026: https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026.02.02.letter-to-usps.pdf. NOTUS reporting on RTO mechanics, Jan. 12, 2026: https://www.notus.org/2026-election/postal-service-mail-in-ballots-change. OIG reports: https://www.uspsoig.gov
27. Postal Regulatory Commission press release, Jan. 31, 2025: https://www.prc.gov. PRC advisory opinion: https://www.prc.gov. Garcia-Morelle letter (quotes PRC conclusion directly): https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026.02.02.letter-to-usps.pdf
28. Rep. Robert Garcia and Rep. Joseph Morelle et al., letter to Postmaster General David Steiner, Feb. 2, 2026 (signed by 70 House Democrats): https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026.02.02.letter-to-usps.pdf. House Oversight Democrats press release: https://oversightdemocrats.house.gov/news/press-releases/ranking-members-robert-garcia-and-joe-morelle-demand-answers-from-usps-on-mail-delivery-changes-and-protecting-election-mail-voting
29. Garcia-Morelle letter, Feb. 2, 2026: https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026.02.02.letter-to-usps.pdf. Sen. Wyden letter to Postmaster General Steiner, March 12, 2026: https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-news/wyden-presses-trump-administration-over-usps-changes-jeopardizing-americans-tax-returns-mail-in-ballots
30. United States Postal Service v. Konan, No. 24-351, 607 U.S. ___ (decided February 24, 2026) (Sotomayor, J., dissenting) (arguing that the Court’s interpretation of the Federal Tort Claims Act extends immunity to intentional interference with mail, collapsing the distinction between negligent loss and deliberate misconduct).
SCOTUS PDF: https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-351_7648.pdf; Justia: https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/607/24-351/; SCOTUSblog: https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/united-states-postal-service-v-konan/; Slate analysis: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2026/02/supreme-court-analysis-clarence-thomas-mail-voting.html31. House Roll Call Vote No. 69, 119th Congress, S. 1383 as amended (SAVE America Act), February 11, 2026: https://clerk.house.gov/Votes?BillNum=S.1383&RollCallNum=69. NACo: https://www.naco.org/news/senate-vote-save-america-act-major-impacts-county-election-administration. CNBC, March 17, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/save-america-act-voter-id-trump-senate.html
32. Roll Call Vote No. 69, 119th Congress, S. 1383 (SAVE America Act), February 11, 2026: https://clerk.house.gov/Votes?BillNum=S.1383&RollCallNum=69. Baumgartner X post, February 11, 2026:
Spokesman-Review: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/feb/11/house-republicans-pass-save-america-act-to-require/
33. S. 1383 as amended (SAVE America Act), 119th Congress, passed February 11, 2026. Congress.gov H.R. 7296: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/7296. Campaign Legal Center: https://campaignlegal.org/update/what-you-need-know-about-save-act. Bipartisan Policy Center: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/five-things-to-know-about-the-save-act/
34. H.R.22, Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, 119th Congress, full text: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr22ih/html/BILLS-119hr22ih.htm. Congress.gov: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22
35. Brennan Center for Justice, “SAVE Act Would Undermine Voter Registration for All Americans”: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/save-act-would-undermine-voter-registration-all-americans. Brennan Center letter to Congress: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/brennan-center-letter-congress-opposing-save-act. CNBC, March 17, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/save-america-act-voter-id-trump-senate.html
36. Rep. Michael Baumgartner (@RepBaumgartner), post on X (formerly Twitter), February 11, 2026:
Spokesman-Review: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/feb/11/house-republicans-pass-save-america-act-to-require/
37. CNBC, “Everything to know about the SAVE America Act voter ID bill,” March 17, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/save-america-act-voter-id-trump-senate.html. NACo: https://www.naco.org/news/senate-vote-save-america-act-major-impacts-county-election-administration. Senate cloture rules: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture.htm
38. Federal News Network, March 17, 2026: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2026/03/usps-cutting-delivery-days-on-the-table-as-agency-runs-out-of-cash-postmaster-general-tells-lawmakers/. NPR, March 17, 2026: https://www.npr.org/2026/03/17/nx-s1-5750419/usps-running-out-of-money-postal-service-david-steiner. House Oversight hearing: https://oversight.house.gov/release/sessions-announces-hearing-on-the-financial-future-of-the-u-s-postal-service/
39. GV Wire / Reuters, March 17, 2026: https://gvwire.com/2026/03/17/us-postal-service-could-run-out-of-money-as-soon-as-october/. NPR, March 17, 2026: https://www.npr.org/2026/03/17/nx-s1-5750419/usps-running-out-of-money-postal-service-david-steiner. Federal News Network, March 17, 2026: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2026/03/usps-cutting-delivery-days-on-the-table-as-agency-runs-out-of-cash-postmaster-general-tells-lawmakers/
40. Trump, Truth Social post, March 8, 2026, quoted in NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-will-not-sign-bills-america-act-passes-rcna262336