By Grant Fredericks — The LeClaire Report
Baumgartner called Donald Trump the most significant American president on Middle East policy since Dwight Eisenhower. He offered that phrase in April, as a ceasefire took hold in a war he had argued must end only when Iran’s nuclear program was fully dismantled, and with the condition that Iran be kept under economic pressure until it complied.1 The memorandum of understanding that ceased hostilities last week does neither. Iran’s enriched uranium stays inside the country, its oil exports are permitted to resume, and the naval blockade Baumgartner wanted maintained until its uranium was surrendered has been dismantled.2 He sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which has oversight of both the war and the agreement that put it on pause.3 He spent a year making the case for war and is now reluctant to accept the peace.
Permanently, Irreversibly, Verifiably
In May 2025, Baumgartner introduced House Resolution 398, roughly six weeks before American bombers first struck Iran’s enrichment sites. The resolution declared it United States policy to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran and called for the “fully dismantling” of its nuclear weapons program.4 Days after those June strikes, joined by Representatives August Pfluger and Zach Nunn, he sponsored a second resolution demanding the program be dismantled “permanently, irreversibly, and verifiably,” with a commitment to defend Israel.5 The blockade, he said, should hold until all of Iran’s enriched uranium was in American hands, relief coming only after Iran surrendered it.6
Effective, Rather Than Concerning
In an April interview with the Spokesman-Review, Baumgartner defended Trump’s conduct of the war. The day before, with Iran’s military blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Trump had threatened that an entire civilization would die if the strait stayed closed. Baumgartner likened the threat to Machiavelli, describing it as Trump mirroring the regime’s apocalyptic language to prove he was not bluffing, and said the rhetoric struck him as effective rather than concerning. He told the paper he cared about the ceasefire more than about how the president framed things. Ryan Crocker, a Spokane Valley native who served as United States ambassador to six countries in the region and endorsed Baumgartner’s 2024 campaign, warned the opposite that week. The truce, he said, could leave Iran’s government stronger and its Revolutionary Guard more entrenched than before the war began.7
They Get To Do Both
On May 3, weeks before the agreement, Baumgartner wrote: “They can sell oil, or they can have enriched uranium.”8 The memorandum Trump signed lets Iran do both. Iran’s oil exports may resume the moment the deal is signed, and its enriched uranium stays in the country.9 United States intelligence assessments indicated that Iran’s stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium remained inside the country, beyond the reach of inspectors, leaving its nuclear timeline little changed.10 The deal also opens a path to ending sanctions and to a reconstruction plan for Iran of at least three hundred billion dollars.11
Iran’s lead negotiator said Tehran had obtained through negotiation “several times over” what it had sought through the war.12 Israeli officials were less pleased; before the agreement, they had believed Iran was nearing economic collapse.13 Reuters reported that the Revolutionary Guard, long a target of the sanctions, was positioned to capture much of the gain, and quoted one Iranian source calling the Guards “the real winners of the war.”14 It was the outcome Crocker had warned of in April.
Critical Oversight Role
His May 2025 resolution made a second demand, this one about Congress’s authority. Announcing it, Baumgartner said deterrence required “affirming Congress’s critical oversight role, especially regarding the authorization of force.”15 When Representatives Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) introduced a war powers resolution requiring congressional authorization for military action against Iran, Baumgartner spoke against it on the House floor and dismissed it as “a partisan political maneuver by the Democrats.” Warren Davidson, a Republican from Ohio, disagreed and voted for it.16 On June 3, when the House passed another war powers resolution, 215 to 208, Baumgartner voted no.17 Despite earlier calling Congress’s role critical, he opposed both measures that would have asserted it.
Under A Pile Of Dirt
Two weeks after that vote, on June 17, the memorandum was signed.18 The one time Baumgartner spoke about the MOU in public, he did not defend it. On the BBC’s Newsnight that day, asked how he answered the charge that the roughly three-hundred-billion-dollar fund for Iran amounted to rebuilding the enemy, he said the United States would “see what develops in the next 60 days.” It could still “choke off Iran’s economy at any time of our choosing,” he added, a step that would break the very agreement he was defending. Then he changed the subject. The president, he said, was the man who put Soleimani and the Ayatollah “in the dirt” and Iran’s nuclear program “under a pile of dirt.”19
It is a practiced move. For a year he had justified the war by reciting the regime’s dead Americans, the 1983 Beirut barracks, Khobar Towers, the hundreds killed in Iraq, Soleimani in Trump’s first term.20 Now, with a deal in front of him that lets Iran keep its uranium and sell its oil, Baumgartner did not defend the agreement’s terms. He returned instead to the same catalogue of old grievances and old victories he had invoked throughout the war: the regime’s dead Americans, Soleimani, the Ayatollah. He called the program buried while the agreement leaves roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium inside the country.21 Asked about the MOU, he made the case for the war.
An Honor To Serve
The war Baumgartner had defended for a year killed thirteen Americans and wounded around four hundred.22 Few in Congress are better placed to judge whether it was worth it. Across that year he had repeatedly set out what an acceptable outcome would require. The memorandum meets none of those conditions, and he has not said so.
This week in Switzerland, Vice President JD Vance opened a fresh round of talks by asking Iran to “turn over a new leaf” and spoke of transforming the two countries’ relationship.23 The outcome Baumgartner demanded is not the agreement Trump signed, nor the future Vance now describes. He cannot defend that deal without abandoning those terms, and he cannot attack it without turning on the president he praised.
His district is home to Fairchild Air Force Base and the military families stationed there. The week the memorandum reached Congress, the newsletter Baumgartner sent those constituents led with a change of command at Fairchild and the opening of a splash pad in Deer Park. It said nothing about the war, the deal, or the Americans who died.24
Endnotes
1. Orion Donovan Smith, “As shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire begins, Crocker calls Trump’s threats ‘beyond extreme’ while Baumgartner defends them as ‘Machiavellian,’” Spokesman-Review, April 8, 2026. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/apr/08/as-shaky-us-iran-ceasefire-begins-crocker-calls-tr/
2. Tanya Noury, “Read the 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran,” Military Times, June 17, 2026. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/06/17/read-the-14-point-memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-united-states-and-iran/
“What the Trump-Iran agreement says about Lebanon, Hormuz and uranium,” Al Jazeera, June 18, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/what-the-trump-iran-14-point-plan-says-about-lebanon-hormuz-and-uranium
3. Office of Rep. Michael Baumgartner, “Baumgartner Introduces Resolution to Prevent Iran from Acquiring Nuclear Weapons,” May 13, 2025. https://baumgartner.house.gov/media/press-releases/baumgartner-introduces-resolution-prevent-iran-acquiring-nuclear-weapons
4. Office of Rep. Michael Baumgartner, “Baumgartner Introduces Resolution to Prevent Iran from Acquiring Nuclear Weapons,” May 13, 2025. https://baumgartner.house.gov/media/press-releases/baumgartner-introduces-resolution-prevent-iran-acquiring-nuclear-weapons
H.Res. 398, 119th Congress. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/398/text
U.S. Department of War, “Historically Successful Strike on Iranian Nuclear Site Was 15 Years in the Making,” June 26, 2025. https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4227082/
5. Office of Rep. Michael Baumgartner, “Baumgartner, Pfluger, Nunn Champion Resolution to End Iran’s Nuclear Threat and Defend Israel,” June 27, 2025. https://baumgartner.house.gov/media/press-releases/baumgartner-pfluger-nunn-champion-resolution-end-irans-nuclear-threat-and
6. Rep. Michael Baumgartner (@RepBaumgartner), post, March 28, 2026.
7. Orion Donovan Smith, “As shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire begins, Crocker calls Trump’s threats ‘beyond extreme’ while Baumgartner defends them as ‘Machiavellian,’” Spokesman-Review, April 8, 2026. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/apr/08/as-shaky-us-iran-ceasefire-begins-crocker-calls-tr/
“Recent endorsements,” Vote Baumgartner for Congress, October 9, 2024. https://www.votebaumgartner.com/post/recent-endorsements
8. Rep. Michael Baumgartner (@RepBaumgartner), post, May 3, 2026.
9. Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. See note 2.
10. “Iran’s nuclear weapon timeline barely set back despite US-Israeli strikes,” Jerusalem Post, May 5, 2026. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-895127
11. Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, clauses 6 and 7. See note 2.
12. “Ghalibaf Declares Victory in Negotiations. Does Anyone Listen?” Middle East Forum, June 17, 2026. https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/ghalibaf-declares-victory-in-negotiations-does-anyone-listen
West Asia News Agency, “Negotiations Yielded Far Greater Results Than Military Action,” June 17, 2026. https://wanaen.com/ghalibaf-negotiations-yielded-far-greater-results-than-military-action/
13. “Iran’s economic collapse was ‘imminent’ before US deal,” Jerusalem Post, June 17, 2026. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-899740
14. Reuters, “Iranian Guards’ business empire to win big if U.S. sanctions lifted,” June 20, 2026 (canonical, paywalled). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-guards-business-empire-win-big-if-us-sanctions-lifted-2026-06-20/
Times of Israel, “Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to win big if US lifts sanctions as part of peace deal,” June 20, 2026. https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-revolutionary-guard-to-win-big-if-us-lifts-sanctions-as-part-of-peace-deal/
15. Office of Rep. Michael Baumgartner, “Baumgartner Introduces Resolution to Prevent Iran from Acquiring Nuclear Weapons,” May 13, 2025. https://baumgartner.house.gov/media/press-releases/baumgartner-introduces-resolution-prevent-iran-acquiring-nuclear-weapons
16. Congressional Record, 119th Congress, March 4, 2026, p. H2395. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-03-04/html/CREC-2026-03-04-pt1-PgH2395.htm
U.S. House of Representatives, Office of the Clerk, Roll Call 85, March 5, 2026. https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/202685
17. U.S. House of Representatives, Office of the Clerk, Roll Call 199, June 3, 2026. https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2026199
18. Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. See note 2.
19. BBC Newsnight, interview with Rep. Michael Baumgartner, June 17, 2026, from 0:18 (broadcast; transcript on file with the author).
Clip excerpt: BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight), June 17, 2026.
20. Congressional Record, 119th Congress, March 4, 2026, p. H2374. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-03-04/html/CREC-2026-03-04-pt1-PgH2374.htm
21. See note 10.
22. Reuters, “US troops, families adjust to new normal of Iran war,” June 7, 2026 (canonical, paywalled). https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-troops-families-adjust-to-new-normal-iran-war-2026-06-07/
The Arab Weekly, “US troops, families struggle to adjust to ‘new normal’ of Iran war,” June 8, 2026. https://thearabweekly.com/us-troops-families-struggle-adjust-new-normal-iran-war
23. Associated Press, “Vance meets top Iranian officials as US looks to prod Iran to ‘turn over a new leaf,’” PBS NewsHour, June 21, 2026. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/vance-meets-top-iranian-officials-as-us-looks-to-prod-iran-to-turn-over-a-new-leaf
“US, Iran agree on ‘roadmap’ towards final deal in Switzerland talks,” Al Jazeera, June 22, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks
24. Rep. Michael Baumgartner, “Your Voice in Congress: Weekly Update,” constituent newsletter, June 19, 2026
Wonderful, Grant! This Trump regime is circling the drain, and thank you so much for tying it ever more closely around Baumgartner’s neck. Have you read Jay Kuo’s latest about it? According to Kuo, the new book, “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump”, is going to completely disrupt the Trump administration. Apparently there are leaks, and what is interesting to read is Kuo’s take on why they are leaking - if you do not do anything else read the last few paragraphs of his post. There are obviously people high up in the Trump administration, on the level of Suzi Wiles and even JD Vance, who think bad things are being done, and they are trying to be able to distance themselves. Someone is leaking and when Trump finds out there will be hell to pay:
Rats Off a Sinking Ship
https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/trump-white-house-leaks?r=3tfn6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer
Kuo discusses the new book about to be released by two NYT reporters. It is going to blow the roof off of the White House. Somebody is leakining!!!