You are right Bryan. I wish I had type space to include details of the questionable practice of using a web panel for a political poll. The poll was financed by a biased dark money PAC …. something Powell vowed not to accept.
I have no doubt that the top-two outcome in the primary will expose the poll’s frailties.
Nice good job covering a lot of the weaknesses of the poll. You left out the major weaknesses of web panels in survey research, but you mentioned other key problems the Tavern results such as that the poll was only on head to head match ups. The primary would not be head to head match ups between two candidates. It will be a list of 12 people among which voters need to pick the top two. For that reason alone, the Tavern Research poll is unlikely to have reported outcomes that closely mirror the actual primary outcomes and who advances to the general. It does not definitely mean the poll results were wrong, but I would not put much faith in them.
You are right Bryan. I wish I had type space to include details of the questionable practice of using a web panel for a political poll. The poll was financed by a biased dark money PAC …. something Powell vowed not to accept.
I have no doubt that the top-two outcome in the primary will expose the poll’s frailties.
Thanks for your experienced input.
Grant
Nice good job covering a lot of the weaknesses of the poll. You left out the major weaknesses of web panels in survey research, but you mentioned other key problems the Tavern results such as that the poll was only on head to head match ups. The primary would not be head to head match ups between two candidates. It will be a list of 12 people among which voters need to pick the top two. For that reason alone, the Tavern Research poll is unlikely to have reported outcomes that closely mirror the actual primary outcomes and who advances to the general. It does not definitely mean the poll results were wrong, but I would not put much faith in them.
Bryan E. Burke, Ph.D.
Center for Voter Research.