By Grant Fredericks — The LeClaire Report
Independent congressional candidate Nate Powell, running to represent WA-5, is boasting on his website that a recent poll shows him beating incumbent Michael Baumgartner. The poll shows he has a 53% to 47% lead.1 But a deep dive into the pollster’s website shows that only 17% of the poll’s respondents had ever heard of Powell.2
The language of the poll’s questions, its methodology, and what the poll leaves out, resulted in a manufactured outcome designed to elevate Powell’s candidacy. The poll was produced by Tavern Research and was funded through the dark-money network that recruited Powell. The poll presented Powell as the only independent candidate in the race, omitting his four independent rivals. And the pollster included a warning about the poll results, writing: “A share that big, built on voters who can’t describe the candidate, is soft.”3
The Polling Blueprint
Powell’s poll is one of four nearly identical polls Tavern Research released in May 2026, each in a different state. Each poll tested a single independent against a Republican incumbent: Dan Osborn against Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, Powell against Baumgartner in WA-5, Michael Thurow against Glenn Grothman in Wisconsin’s 6th, and Bill Hill against Nick Begich in Alaska.4
The method was the same in each. Every poll drew its respondents from opt-in web panels, weighted them on the same five criteria: gender, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, and age. Every poll set the Republican against named Democrats, a generic Democrat, and the independent supported by the same dark money PAC.
The outcome was the same in each poll. In all four states, the Republican beat every Democrat tested, and in all four the independent ran stronger than any Democrat. Two of the independents polled higher than the incumbent: Osborn over Ricketts, 47 to 42, and Powell over Baumgartner, 53 to 47. Four states, four Republican incumbents, and in every one the independent, not any Democrat, won the headline.
All four independent candidates share the same funding source. Each was recruited and endorsed by the Working Class Heroes Fund, an Omaha political action committee founded by Osborn, himself one of the four candidates.5,6 Federal Election Commission filings show that WCHF received at least $450,000 from Contours Inc. Contours is a Delaware nonprofit the IRS recognized as a 501(c)(4) social welfare organization in October 2025. By law, it is not required to disclose its donors, the defining characteristic of dark money.7 Powell’s polling data is labeled with Contours’ name on the pollster’s website.8
Inside the Methodology
The poll tested a head-to-head matchup between Powell and Baumgartner. But it also included a question about favorability. 83% of respondents checked the box that read “Not sure / Never heard of (him)”. In the question, the respondent was given one choice, Baumgartner, the incumbent Republican, or Powell, the unknown independent. The majority of participants chose Powell.9
Of the 578 respondents,191 (33%) identified as Republicans. 225 identified as independents, and 162 identified as Democrats. A pollster controls the demographic of respondents. Tavern drew its sample from web panels, the method identified in its own data reports. Those panels consist of people who volunteer to take online surveys for rewards rather than a random sample of voters.10 By design, the pollster chose to weight participation in favor of an independent candidate.
The real WA-5 contest is an August 4 top-two primary with twelve candidates, including six Democrats and five independents.11 Tavern Research tested Powell as the lone independent, one-on-one against Baumgartner, with the four others, Andrew Bartleson, Ann Marie Danimus, Matthew Hayes, and Kyle Usrey, removed from the ballot.12
The Pollster’s Conclusion
The frailties of the poll’s methodology can be found at the source. Tavern’s own disclosure of its independent weighted poll warns, “The party label is doing the work.” The memo continues: “His 53% looks like a parking spot for voters who want to fire the incumbent but won’t vote for a Democrat, not real support for Powell himself.”13
The Poll’s Other Findings
The poll also asked voters how they view each candidate. Net favorability is the share who view a candidate favorably minus the share who view him unfavorably. A negative score means more voters dislike him than like him. Among independents, the group asked to choose between Baumgartner and Powell, Powell’s score is actually negative. Most of them do not know him, and the few who do lean against him. The poll data shows that no other candidate in the race rates lower with independents.14
By contrast, the Tavern poll specifically determined that Carmela Conroy was the best-regarded challenger in the field. The chart ranks each candidate’s net favorability within each voter group. Conroy’s +22 among Democrats is the strongest rating any challenger earns with any group of voters polled. Powell’s single best rating is +7, and it comes from Republicans. With independents, Powell falls to −4, below every other candidate in the race. Yet the poll says those same independents back him over Baumgartner, 69 to 31. The pollster noted that respondents voted for the independent label when no other alternative to Baumgartner was offered.15
When the Poll Becomes the Message
Powell’s website presents the poll as proof that he is the strongest challenger to Baumgartner.16 That headline now circulates as fact, repeated without the warnings the pollster provided.
Fuse Washington has adopted the headline. Fuse is a progressive advocacy organization, a 501(c)(4) founded in 2007, best known for its Progressive Voters Guide, and it identifies itself as the largest progressive group in the state.17 Its 2026 Eastern Washington action plan reproduces Powell’s headline on a slide of its own: “Powell: 53, Baumgartner: 47.” Fuse also shows three Democrats losing, and credits Tavern’s methodology for the conclusion. Fuse does not include an analysis of the underlying data, nor of the pollster’s warnings.18
The LeClaire Report asked Fuse Washington about its reliance on the poll. At the time of this writing, Fuse has not responded.
Polls are intended to measure public opinion, not manufacture it. When a poll is stripped of the context its own author says is essential, it can misdirect decisions about where money is spent, where volunteers work, which candidate an organization promotes, and ultimately how voters view the race. How a campaign presents evidence is itself a reflection of the candidate. With ballots about to be cast in Washington’s August 4 primary, a candidate’s duty is to ensure that claims presented to voters reflect not only a poll’s headline, but also its limitations.
Endnotes
1. Nate Powell for Congress, “New Poll Shows Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails Independent Nate Powell.” https://natepowellforcongress.com/new-poll-shows-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent-nate-powell/
2. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
3. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
4. Tavern Research, “WI-06: Grothman Leads Every Matchup. Independent, Michael Thurow, Cuts His Margin in Half,” May 29, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings/wi06-grothman-independent-halves-margin
Tavern Research, “AK-AL: Begich Leads Every Matchup. An Unknown Independent Runs Closest,” May 29, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings/ak-al-begich-leads-independent-runs-closest
Tavern Research, “Ricketts Has an Independent Problem in Nebraska,” May 11, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings/nebraska-senate-poll
5. Nate Powell, remarks, Spokane, December 20, 2025, video published by Indivisible Spokane.
6. Working Class Heroes Fund, Endorsements. https://www.workingclassheroes.fund/endorsements
Working Class Heroes Fund, About. https://www.workingclassheroes.fund/about
Federal Election Commission, Working Class Heroes Fund (C00892653), committee overview. https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00892653/
7. Federal Election Commission, Working Class Heroes Fund (C00892653), Schedule A receipts from Contours Inc., October 1, 2025 and April 27, 2026. https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/?committee_id=C00892653&contributor_name=Contours
Sludge, “A New Web of Secret Money Is Shaping Democratic Races Across the Country,” April 30, 2026. https://readsludge.com/2026/04/30/a-new-web-of-secret-money-is-shaping-democratic-races-across-the-country/
8. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
9. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
10. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
11. Washington Secretary of State / Spokesman-Review, WA-5 2026 candidate field, August 4, 2026 primary. https://www.spokesman.com/elections/2026/washington-primary-election-aug-4/races/congressional/congressional-district-5/us-representative/
12. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
13. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
14. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
15. Tavern Research, “WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent,” May 29, 2026, with crosstab file “WA-05 Crosstabs - Contours - WA5 20260518_133809.pdf,” fielded May 18-25, 2026. https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent
16. Nate Powell for Congress, “New Poll Shows Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails Independent Nate Powell.” https://natepowellforcongress.com/new-poll-shows-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent-nate-powell/
17. Charity Navigator, “FUSE WASHINGTON (EIN: 26-0573960).” https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/260573960
Fuse Washington, “About Us.” https://fusewashington.org/about-fuse
Fuse Washington, “Our Programs.” https://www.fusewashington.org/about-fuse/programs
Fuse Washington, “Behind the Scenes of the Progressive Voters Guide,” August 2, 2018. https://www.fusewashington.org/news/blog/behind-scenes-progressive-voters-guide
Progressive Voters Guide, “About.” https://progressivevotersguide.com/washington/2025/primary/about
18. Fuse Washington, “2026 Eastern WA Electoral Landscape, WA-5 Deep Dive,” internal deck, provided by requester.
You are right Bryan. I wish I had type space to include details of the questionable practice of using a web panel for a political poll. The poll was financed by a biased dark money PAC …. something Powell vowed not to accept.
I have no doubt that the top-two outcome in the primary will expose the poll’s frailties.
Thanks for your experienced input.
Grant
Nice good job covering a lot of the weaknesses of the poll. You left out the major weaknesses of web panels in survey research, but you mentioned other key problems the Tavern results such as that the poll was only on head to head match ups. The primary would not be head to head match ups between two candidates. It will be a list of 12 people among which voters need to pick the top two. For that reason alone, the Tavern Research poll is unlikely to have reported outcomes that closely mirror the actual primary outcomes and who advances to the general. It does not definitely mean the poll results were wrong, but I would not put much faith in them.
Bryan E. Burke, Ph.D.
Center for Voter Research.