By Grant Fredericks — The LeClaire Report
Michael Baumgartner is competing against twelve challengers for one of two ballot positions for the November general election. A single challenger will emerge to face the incumbent after the August 4 primary.¹ As President Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to their lowest levels of his second term,² the 2026 congressional election is likely to produce the most significant opportunity for Democrats in over twenty years. But will Democrats show up or will they leave the decision of who might represent this district, and potentially be the deciding vote on important legislative issues, to a relatively small number of politically active voters?
Statistically, only about four in ten registered voters in Washington’s 5th District will decide which two candidates move on to the general election.³ More troubling still is that between 70,000 and 90,000 residents are not yet registered to vote.⁴ If they fail to register, their voices will remain silent.
Those non-voters, both registered and unregistered, are our neighbors, our co-workers, the people two doors down. In Washington’s primary system, their electoral absence gives an unequal voice to a minority. When turnout is this low, a challenger needs only one vote more than any of the other eleven competitors to claim the second position on the ballot.⁵ If Democratic-leaning voters stay home, that thin margin can hand the general election right back to Baumgartner.
The Real Contest Is Happening Now
The August primary is approaching quickly, but it is not what many people believe they are watching. Most picture a Democrat facing Baumgartner in the fall. What is actually being decided is a scramble among a dozen challengers for one seat, settled by a slice of the electorate that underrepresents the needs of our district.
That is where you come in. Washington does not register voters by party. The turnout figures show a large pool of people who stay home. Each of us knows like-minded family, friends, co-workers who sit out the primary election, either because they don’t fully understand the stakes or because they feel their vote won’t count. This is exactly why the work belongs to each of us and not to a pollster.
What You Can Do Before August 4
The timing is tight, and it is exact. Ballots were mailed on July 17 and are already in mailboxes across the district. If someone you know is not yet registered, they still can be. Online and mail registrations must be received by Monday, July 27. After that, an eligible resident can still register and vote in person, all the way through 8 p.m. on Election Day, August 4, at a county elections office or voting center. A completed ballot must be postmarked by August 4 or placed in an official drop box by 8 p.m. that day. If it goes by mail, send it several days early so a late postmark does not disqualify it.⁶
The voter margin that will make a difference for the 5th District this year will come from the people who already lean your way and would otherwise stay home. Between now and August 4, find two or three of them. Turning them out is what creates the opening for a Democrat to reach November.
Endnotes
1. Washington Secretary of State, Amended 2026 Certification of Candidates to the Primary Election, May 12, 2026, https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-05/Amended%202026%20Certification%20of%20Candidates%20to%20Primary%20Election.pdf. Washington Secretary of State, Washington State Primary Election Fact Sheet, August 4, 2026, July 10, 2026, https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-07/PrimaryElectionFacts2026.pdf
2. Gallup, Presidential Approval Ratings, Donald Trump, https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx. Reuters/Ipsos, Trump approval ties lowest of term, June 23, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/few-us-say-iran-war-was-worth-it-trump-approval-ties-lowest-term-reutersipsos-2026-06-23/
3. Washington Secretary of State, August 2, 2022 Primary Voter Turnout, https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20220802/turnout.html. Washington Secretary of State, August 7, 2018 Primary Voter Turnout, https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20180807/turnout.html
4. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey profile, Congressional District 5, Washington, https://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US5305-congressional-district-5-wa/. Washington Secretary of State, Understanding Voter Registration Data, https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/data-research/election-technology/understanding-voter-registration-data
5. Washington Secretary of State, Current Election Information, https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/voters/helpful-information/current-election-information. Washington Secretary of State, Amended 2026 Certification of Candidates to the Primary Election, May 12, 2026, https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-05/Amended%202026%20Certification%20of%20Candidates%20to%20Primary%20Election.pdf
6. Washington Secretary of State, Washington State Primary Election Fact Sheet, August 4, 2026, July 10, 2026, https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-07/PrimaryElectionFacts2026.pdf
Done … I wrote to Jeff a week ago. No response.
Keep writing.
Please write to FUSE Washington at info@fusewashington.org and let them know that you disagree with their irresponsible endorsement of Nate. Their research appears to have been faulty.
> On Jul 20, 2026, at 5:33 PM, Jeff DeBray, Fuse Votes <info@fusewashington.org> wrote:
>
>
>
> Dear Friend,
>
> Last week, we published Our Progressive Voters Guide (PVG) recommending Nate Powell for the 5th Congressional District (CD) in the upcoming August Primary. I understand there may be some questions about this recommendation. I live here and am deeply rooted in our community. I care that our neighbors are taken care of and can afford to live a good life. I also see what happens when Democrats are in charge; in Spokane we’ve passed an LGBTQIA2S+ ordinance protecting the queer community, approved $100,000 in emergency aid for immigrants, and established a fund to build more affordable housing for the communities who need it most. But those progressive wins did not happen without electoral victories. Last year, Fuse contacted tens of thousands of voters to help elect our endorsed progressive champions Sarah Dixit, Zack Zappone, and Kate Telis to the Spokane City Council. This year, we’ve endorsed and recommended progressive leaders like State Representative Natasha Hill and Danny Tarkenton and progressive causes like Yes For Buses to fund Spokane Transit, No Hate in WA State, and No On I-645, the campaign to defend the Millionaires Tax in Washington.
>
> But if you don't live in Spokane proper, your life is very different under MAGA Republican rule. You shouldn't have to live in the city to make sure all your needs are met. Everyone in Eastern Washington should be able to see a doctor when they are sick, and live in a house they can actually afford. The only way we're going to achieve these things for everyone who lives here is if we beat MAGA Republican Congressman Michael Baumgartner in November. And I want to tell you why we think Nate Powell is the only candidate in this race who can do that.
>
> As a Spokane firefighter and first responder, Nate Powell has seen first-hand how growing inequality and billionaire theft has left working people with the impossible choice between healthcare or crippling debt. That’s why he’s one of the only candidates to publicly support Medicare for All and legislation to fight giant corporations from buying up our homes, our data, and our small businesses to pad their pockets. It’s why he’s the only candidate to receive sole endorsements from SEIU 775 and the WA State Labor Council, representing healthcare workers, in-home caregivers, and 600,000 union members across our state.
>
> The PVG is informed and strongly weighted by trusted relationships we have with partner organizations on the front lines fighting for reproductive rights, the environment, workers’ rights, immigrant protections, public education, LGBTQ+ advocacy, affordable housing and more. Our recommendations do not automatically mean recommending the most progressive candidate in a race, but rather, who we think is the best choice for progressive voters. For the 5th CD, that meant weighing the fact that Nate Powell is the only candidate to receive endorsements from our partner organizations, his support for progressive priorities like passing Medicare for All, taxing the ultra-wealthy, stopping data center construction, and committing to fight for working families. It also meant making the honest assessment that in a district a Democrat lost by 21 points in 2024, Powell, as a viable Independent candidate, has the best chance of defeating MAGA Rep. Baumgartner. You can read more about our recommendation process here.
>
> Fuse is aware of Nate’s statements on trans girls in school sports and immigration and we want to be clear – in no way is this recommendation an agreement with these statements, nor a free pass on them. This recommendation does not aim to validate or moderate, but instead, as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders remind us, to create the conditions we need to advocate and build power in a district that has left us behind with politics as usual. It aims to be strategic about how we build power beyond the City of Spokane and in new territory where Democrats have struggled for decades. If Nate Powell is elected to Congress, Fuse looks forward to working alongside many of you in the community to pressure him on these positions and any others that do not align with our progressive values.
>
> Many of you know Fuse has a long history of standing up for marginalized communities – serving as a founding member of the Spokane Immigrant Rights Coalition, the Balance Our Tax Code Coalition to make the wealthy pay what they owe, and Build the Bench, our program developing future local progressive leaders alongside our trusted community partner, the Washington Bus. Before, during, and after this election cycle, these values remain unchanged. Whether it’s pressuring a new member of Congress or protesting against ICE abductions, you will continue to see us show up for progress in Eastern Washington as we always have.
>
> We understand the surprise that may be felt with this recommendation. These are unprecedented times. As someone deeply invested in this community, and on behalf of Fuse, I wanted to be transparent about how we navigated this recommendation and our strategy to build power in CD 5. Fuse’s commitment to fighting for progressive values remains unchanged. I look forward to seeing you out there in the fight.
>
> Thanks for all you do.
>
> In solidarity,
> Jeff and the entire team at Fuse