Washington’s Fifth Congressional District is considered Republican ground. Since 1995 the seat has belonged to three Republicans: George Nethercutt, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and Michael Baumgartner, who won it when McMorris Rodgers retired in 2025.1 But a crack has opened in the Republican coalition in Eastern Washington, and it gives a strong Democrat a chance in November.
Nationally, the party has split into two camps. One is the MAGA base loyal to Donald Trump. The other is a large bloc of traditional conservative Republicans uneasy with an administration that has pulled back from alliances and international institutions while becoming more willing to use military force abroad.2
For decades, the Republicans who represented Eastern Washington held a traditionally conservative view of foreign affairs. They backed international trade, because the region’s farm economy lives on exports, and they supported strong alliances and American leadership overseas. Baumgartner has articulated the traditional standard of congressional authorization and alliance support, but then he has consistently retreated, backing the administration’s unilateral use of force and voting against measures to constrain it.3 The administration, supported by far-right members of the House, has withdrawn from international agreements, including the World Health Organization and the Paris climate accord.4 It has also adopted a more transactional approach toward longstanding allies. Many of those countries are now building new trade and security partnerships, relying less on the United States.5 As a result, the region’s farmers are squeezed by higher fuel and fertilizer costs from the war with Iran and reduced access to markets due to the tariff fights, and they want stability.6
Across the country, Democrats with military, intelligence, and diplomatic experience are winning in Republican districts.
Republican Ground Is Winnable
The independent Cook Political Report measures how strongly each congressional district favors Republicans or Democrats. Its Partisan Voting Index compares a district’s two-party presidential vote with the national vote over the two most recent presidential elections. A rating of R+5 means the district previously voted five points more Republican than the country.
Cook now rates Washington’s Fifth at R+5. A year ago the rating was R+8. The district’s rating has moved three points toward the national average.7
This year, Democrats with national-security records won nominations in Republican districts. Rebecca Bennett, a Navy helicopter pilot, won the Democratic primary in New Jersey’s Seventh, which Trump carried in 2024.8 Nancy Lacore, a retired Navy vice admiral, won a runoff in South Carolina’s First, which Trump also carried.9 Cait Conley, a former Army special-operations officer, won her primary in New York’s Seventeenth.10
Democrats with these records have already won general elections in districts more Republican than the Fifth. In 2018, Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, won Virginia’s Seventh, which Cook rated R+6.11 Conor Lamb, a Marine, won a special election that year in Pennsylvania’s old Eighteenth, which Cook rated R+11.12
Others have won more recently. Jared Golden, a Marine, won reelection in 2024 in a Maine district Trump carried. Derek Tran, an Army veteran, unseated a Republican incumbent in California in 2024. Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, won a Michigan Senate seat in 2024 while the state voted for Trump.13
Washington’s Fifth now has three Democratic candidates with national-security credentials.
WA-5’s National Security Democrats
Carmela Conroy, a Spokane native and former Deputy Prosecutor with the Spokane County Prosecutor’s Office, served almost 25 years as a Foreign Service officer in Japan, Afghanistan, New Zealand and in other regions. Among her assignments, she was the consul general in Lahore, Pakistan, during the Afghanistan/Iraq-war period, managing a staff of approximately 600 people in one of the most dangerous assignments in the region. She received the CIA’s Agency Seal Medal for her work preceding the raid that killed Osama Bin Laden. She earned her master’s degree in national-security studies at the Naval War College.14
David Womack served 26 years as an Air Force officer and retired as a colonel. He commanded the 92nd Medical Group at Fairchild Air Force Base and graduated from the Air War College, the Air Force’s senior school for command and strategy. He then spent more than a decade leading health-care organizations, running two rural hospitals, including Whitman Hospital in Colfax, and serving as a senior vice president at Kaiser Permanente, responsible for 115,000 members and a $700 million budget. His connection to Eastern Washington includes his Fairchild command from 2002 to 2004 and his work at the Colfax hospital from 2009 to 2011. He returned to Washington State in 2021 and now resides in Walla Walla.15
Bajun Mavalwalla served more than two decades in the U.S. Army, most of it in the California Army National Guard. He began on active duty in the Regular Army, trained as a Russian linguist at the Defense Language Institute, and worked in electronic warfare and intelligence. He served most of his career as an enlisted soldier before becoming an officer. He deployed to Iraq and to Afghanistan and has been reported by PBS NewsHour and the Guardian to have earned three Bronze Stars. From 2010 to 2011 he served as a liaison to the political section of the American embassy in Baghdad, and his last deployment, in 2012 and 2013, was as a police adviser in Afghanistan. He moved to Washington State in 2020, according to his campaign biography.16
No Longer Safe
Washington’s Fifth has elected a Republican for thirty years, and it remains Republican-leaning. In a CNN poll released on July 29, only 19 percent of Republicans nationally say they are enthusiastic about the remainder of Trump’s second term, down from 38 percent in the spring. Roughly two-thirds of Americans say Trump’s military decisions on Iran have hurt the country, and 74 percent say rising gas prices have caused them at least some hardship.17 At the same time, WA-5’s Democratic candidates this year have national-security backgrounds that may appeal to a district concerned about the direction of American foreign policy and its consequences at home.
Endnotes
1. Associated Press, “Republican Michael Baumgartner wins election to U.S. House in Washington’s 5th Congressional District,” November 5, 2024; Ballotpedia, “Washington’s 5th Congressional District” (Nethercutt, McMorris Rodgers, and Baumgartner succession). https://apnews.com/article/9aa2110f5a914ece9d9a729e345308d1 ; https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_5th_Congressional_District
2. Pew Research Center, “How foreign policy values and issues cut across the political typology groups,” June 10, 2026. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/06/10/how-foreign-policy-values-and-issues-cut-across-the-political-typology-groups/
3. Washington State Standard, “WA’s Baumgartner raises process concerns with U.S. strikes on suspected drug boats,” October 20, 2025; The Spokesman-Review, “Congressmen Michael Baumgartner, Adam Smith react,” January 3, 2026; Rep. Michael Baumgartner, post on X (@RepBaumgartner), June 23, 2025 (commending the Iran strikes); KXLY, “Congressman Michael Baumgartner commends President Trump on Iran bombings,” June 2025; U.S. House Clerk, Roll Call 346 on H.Con.Res. 64, December 17, 2025 (Nay); U.S. House Clerk, Roll Call 85 on H.Con.Res. 38, March 5, 2026 (Nay). https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2025/10/20/was-baumgartner-raises-process-concerns-with-u-s-strikes-on-suspected-drug-boats/ ; https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/jan/03/congressmen-michael-baumgartner-adam-smith-react-a/ ;
; https://kxly.com/news/congressman-michael-baumgartner-commends-president-trump-on-iran-bombings/article_5cac9211-1de9-4f96-8d2f-b4de33434d3e.html ; https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2025/roll346.xml ; https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2026/roll085.xml
4. The White House, “Withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization” (Executive Order 14155), January 2025; The White House, “Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements” (Paris Agreement withdrawal), January 2025. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/withdrawing-the-united-states-from-the-worldhealth-organization/ ; https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/
5. Prime Minister of Canada, “Canada announces new strengthened partnership with the European Union,” June 23, 2025; European External Action Service, “Security and Defence: EU and Canada sign a Security and Defence Partnership”; CNN, May 28, 2026 (Canada moving to reduce its reliance on the United States). https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2025/06/23/canada-announces-new-strengthened-partnership-european ; https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/security-and-defence-eu-and-canada-sign-security-and-defence-partnership_en ; https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/28/americas/canada-us-carney-trade-hnk-intl
6. Reuters, “Rising fuel prices hit US farms as Iran war drags on,” June 9, 2026; The White House, “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff,” April 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rising-fuel-prices-hit-us-farms-iran-war-drags-2026-06-09/ ; https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/
7. Cook Political Report, WA-05 (current PVI R+5); Ballotpedia, “Washington’s 5th Congressional District” (R+8 in prior editions, R+5 in the current edition). https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485511 ; https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_5th_Congressional_District
8. Reuters, “Bennett wins Democratic nod in New Jersey primary to face US House Republican Kean,” June 3, 2026 (Navy helicopter pilot; Trump carried NJ-7 in 2024). https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bennett-wins-democratic-nod-new-jersey-primary-face-us-house-republican-kean-2026-06-03/
9. The Guardian, “Admiral fired in Hegseth purge wins Democratic primary in South Carolina,” June 23, 2026; U.S. Navy, “Vice Admiral Nancy S. Lacore”; Wikipedia, “2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina” (Trump carried SC-1, about 55.8 percent to 42.7 percent). https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/23/admiral-nancy-lacore-democratic-primary-south-carolina ; https://www.navy.mil/Leadership/Flag-Officer-Biographies/Search/Article/2236442/vice-admiral-nancy-s-lacore/ ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_South_Carolina
10. Reuters, “Conley wins Democratic primary to take on Republican Congressman Mike Lawler in New York,” June 24, 2026; Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, “Cait Conley.” https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/conley-wins-democratic-primary-take-republican-congressman-mike-lawler-new-york-2026-06-24/ ; https://ctc.westpoint.edu/scholars/cait-conley/
11. Virginia Department of Elections, “2018 General Election, U.S. House, Congressional District 7”; Ballotpedia, “Virginia’s 7th Congressional District” (Cook PVI R+6 under the pre-2022 map). https://historical.elections.virginia.gov/contest/134064 ; https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia%27s_7th_Congressional_District
12. Wikipedia, “2018 Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district special election” (Conor Lamb, Marine veteran; Cook PVI R+11; district later eliminated by redistricting). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Pennsylvania%27s_18th_congressional_district_special_election
13. Ballotpedia, “Maine’s 2nd Congressional District election, 2024,” and Maine Public, “Golden wins ranked-choice runoff in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District,” November 15, 2024; Associated Press, “Democrat Derek Tran wins election to U.S. House in California’s 45th Congressional District,” November 27, 2024; Wikipedia, “2024 United States Senate election in Michigan” (Slotkin won while Michigan voted for Trump). https://ballotpedia.org/Maine%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2024 ; https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2024-11-15/golden-wins-ranked-choice-runoff-in-maines-2nd-congressional-district ; https://apnews.com/article/1d4099c725cb49c28badcc348dce742f ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan
14. Carmela Conroy for Congress, campaign biography; Wikipedia, “Carmela Conroy”; U.S. Department of State magazine (identifying Conroy as consul general, Lahore). On her role in the 2011 Raymond Davis crisis and its relation to the bin Laden operation: Raymond Davis with Storms Reback, The Contractor: How I Landed in a Pakistani Prison and Ignited a Diplomatic Crisis (BenBella Books, 2017), pp. 141, 183-185, 209 (“In many ways, Carmela Conroy is the true hero of this story”); Steve Coll, Directorate S: The C.I.A. and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan (Penguin Press, 2018), pp. 470-472, 476 (planning for the Abbottabad raid “increased the pressure to somehow extract Raymond Davis”; Davis was released March 16, 2011, 47 days before the May 2 raid).
https://conroy4congress.com/
; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carmela_Conroy ; https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/148639.pdf
15. David Womack for Congress, campaign biography; Air Mobility Command, “AMC announces senior officer retirements, assignments.” https://www.davidwomackforcongress.com/about.html ; https://www.amc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/148876/amc-announces-senior-officer-retirements-assignments/
16. PBS NewsHour, “Army veteran faces conspiracy charges after participating in anti-ICE protest” (attributing three Bronze Stars to “his father, Bajun Ray Mavalwalla, a retired intelligence officer”); The Spokesman-Review, “For Bajun Mavalwalla, running for Congress is personal,” June 16, 2026; Friends of Bajun, campaign biography (move to Washington in 2020). https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/army-veteran-faces-conspiracy-charges-after-participating-in-anti-ice-protest ; https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/jun/16/for-bajun-mavalwalla-running-for-congress-is-perso/ ; https://www.votebajun.com/meetbajun
17. CNN, “CNN Poll: Americans doubt Trump is paying enough attention to the country’s most important problems,” July 29, 2026 (CNN Poll conducted by SSRS; interviews conducted July 23 to 27, 2026). https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/29/politics/cnn-poll-donald-trump-midterms-polls-iran-war